Doctoral Dissertation

Party Switching in Comparative Perspective: Rules, Resources, and Legislative Strategies

Doctoral dissertation in progress. DCP-FFLCH/USP. Advisor: Prof. Rogério Bastos Arantes. Funded by FAPESP (Process nº 2025/16592-1).

This dissertation investigates how the control and distribution of political resources shapes the strategies that legislators and parties deploy to attract and retain political talent, and how anti-defection rules constrain that competition. The project adopts a mixed-methods design combining econometric models with qualitative strategies for process tracing and elite interviews.

Publications

Forthcoming & Under Review

Herzog, Lucas. "Institutional Change through Interbranch Interaction: The Trajectory of Brazil's Party Loyalty Rule (2007–2022)." (under review).

Herzog, Lucas, and João Pedro Haddad. "Plano Real e o debate de ideias: das disputas ideacionais à centralização da autoridade monetária no Brasil." Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais (forthcoming).

Herzog, Lucas, and Gabriel Pinho Brochado. "The Polysemy of Crisis: Conceptual Dimensions of Democracy in Crisis." Book chapter (forthcoming).

Herzog, Lucas. "Political Delegation and Institutional Empowerment: Central Bank Independence Before and After the 2008 Crisis." (under review).

Published

Herzog, Lucas. O jogo da regra: fidelidade partidária e interações judiciário-legislativo no Brasil. Master's dissertation. University of São Paulo, 2025. DOI: 10.11606/D.8.2024.tde-13032025-164730

Herzog, Lucas, and João Pedro Haddad. "Regulação, Pandemia e Captura Regulatória: elementos analíticos sobre captura de agências em contexto de emergência em saúde pública." In: Normativas Estaduais para o Enfrentamento da Pandemia de Covid-19 no Brasil. Brasília: CONASS, 2023, v. VII, p. 90–111.

Herzog, Lucas. "Conflito distributivo, inflação inercial e pactos sociais: revisitando os trabalhos de Persio Arida, Edmar Bacha e André Lara-Resende." Estudos Econômicos, v. 52, p. 429–458, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575226lbh 

Working Papers

Party Loyalty and Party Switching in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies

This article examines how the party loyalty rule reshaped incentives for party switching in Brazil's Chamber of Deputies between 2007 and 2022. Drawing on all 155 TSE rulings involving federal deputies and party switching data spanning seven legislatures (1995–2022), it shows that the rule did not reduce the volume of switches but altered their temporal distribution across the legislative cycle.

Agenda Power and Government Coalition Management in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies

This project examines how government and party leaders use vote orientations to manage legislative coalitions in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies. Disaggregating nominal votes into procedural and substantive categories the analysis investigates why the government frequently orients its coalition to vote "No," and what this pattern reveals about the executive's legislative strategy in multiparty presidential systems.

Vertical Coordination and Electoral Coalition Strategies: The PT in Municipal Elections (2000–2024)

This article investigates the determinants of electoral coalition formation by the Workers' Party (PT) in Brazilian municipal mayoral elections between 2000 and 2024. Treating coalitions as strategic party decisions rather than mere explanatory variables, the analysis examines how ideological and institutional factors shape the PT's alliance strategies across regions and over time.